On the eve of the United Nations deadline for Iran to stop nuclear enrichment, we spoke with Shaul Bakhash, a professor of Middle East history at George Mason University and author of numerous books on Iran, and Roxanne Varzi, a UC Irvine anthropologist, who specializes in the region.

SHAUL BAKHASH
Q. Is Iran’s position on nuclear development more posturing or do they really want to make a nuclear plant on their own?

A. I think on the issue of nuclear fuel enrichment, which has become the issue between Iran on the one hand and the U.S. and the European community on the other, Iran has been very insistent that it will not give up the right of domestic enrichment program. That’s Iran’s red line and since Iran’s leaders have been saying that for the last two years, we should believe them.

I don’t think that Iranians will give up enrichment. Although they have been willing to accept a very limited program under strict international supervision and maybe willing to suspend enrichment for a number of years so long as it’s revisited and reexamined.

The acceptance of this limited enrichment program is contingent on the incentive package (but) many of the incentives don’t have credibility without American endorsement.

Q. How is Iran viewed in the Middle East?

A. On the street, Iran’s standing has risen in part because it has stood up to the West and in part of its insisting on its right to develop nuclear capability. Its support of Hezbollah also resonates well in the Middle East. (But) the governments (in the region) would be very concerned that Iran acquired nuclear capability. Arab opinion is mixed and there’s a gap between the view on the streets and governments.

Q. What would be the worst case scenario?

A. The probable scenario is it doesn’t seem the U.S. has the votes in the U.N. Security Council for sanctions. Tightening of individual country sanctions (could occur). These sanctions would hurt Iran. It would not change its policies.

Unemployment remains a problem. But with 40 billion in oil revenues at current prices and large foreign exchange reserves, Iran has a lot of cushion for maneuvers.

A better scenario is that U.S. and Europeans will begin negotiations again. The worst scenario, although not a probable one, is a breakdown in negotiations and success in getting a U.N. resolution. Iran responding with breaking of dialogue with the International Atomic Energy Agency and leaving the (nuclear) non-proliferation treaty of which they are signatories and under the table making life difficult for U.S. in Iraq.

ROXANNE VARZI
Q. What’s the feeling in Iran?
A. You have to think about the whole history of Iran, even for people who did not agree with the coming of an Islamic regime, there was a feeling that internal politics in Iran have always been manipulated by the U.S….this has been the case since the 1953 coup when Prime Minister Mossadegh was ousted form power by the American and the British. This feeling remained later when the U.S aided Iraq in the eight year war against Iran which is part of the reason coupled with sanctions since the revolution that Iran’s economy is not doing well.

Now, even people who are not supportive of the Islamic regime see their president as standing up to a country that has historically treated Iran like a colony. They feel that nuclear energy, and the emphasis here is how people view the issue on the ground…as an energy issue and not a weapons issue –they see that nuclear energy is something that other countries have, including the U.S (and) why should they be told they cannot?

Q. With Iranians already concerned about their economy, will international sanctions hurt living conditions?
A. The economy is not doing well, the cost of living is extremely high, there was a mass migration of people from rural areas into Tehran after the revolution and promised incentives (that were not followed through with) to have more children, so there’s been a population boom in urban areas leading to less jobs, less affordable housing.

There are migrant workers and refugees from Afghanistan and Iraq — it’s very complicated and there have already been U.S. sanctions, and Iran has other trade partners and countries that have good relations with it, so U.S. sanctions are not as threatening as say the other trade partners chiefly from Western Europe, Russia and China.

To the reader: Share your thoughts on Iran’s insistence on nuclear enrichment and what the United States role should be by posting a comment to this entry.

- By Vik Jolly, Orange County Register

This entry was posted on Wednesday, August 30th, 2006 at 5:37 pm and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.